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Senin, 18 Maret 2013

Mandiant's APT1 "Mission" problem

Mandiant's APT1 report's table of proof listed six categories that Mandiant deduced tied APT1 to PLA Unit 61398. The first, which Mandiant called the Mission area, made the claim that PLA Unit 61398 "targets strategic emerging industries in China's 12th Five year Plan" (see table 12 on p.59). Earlier in the report the authors claimed that "APT1 has targeted at least four of the seven strategic emerging industries that China identified in its 12th Five Year Plan" (p.24).

The Mission evidence is particularly of interest to me because I've been mining adversary state R&D since 2009 and while knowing what a potential adversary state is after is important, it cannot be done at the 50,000 foot view which is what China's Five Year Plans do. Taia Global published a white paper almost a year ago (a copy of which was requested by one of Mandiant's executives) which provided a similar high level look at 13 nation state R&D priorities and it too was not sufficiently granular to be of much use in an attribution effort however it does make clear that certain technologies are of value to at least a half dozen threat actors (see below). And frankly, this is a very valid approach, if done properly, to help a company understand which files may be at risk. In fact, that's precisely what Taia Global's new product Chimera is being developed to do. However, it's not enough to just say that because "energy" is part of China's FYP, then it must be China whenever an energy company is attacked. France, Germany, and Russia are also spending money on Energy related research and all three of those states have engaged in industrial espionage. But even that's not sufficient evidence to blame a state actor. What's more likely in my opinion is that a professional hacker group is making money by stealing valuable IP and selling it to competitors, state-run companies, and/or the states themselves.

Here are the seven new strategic industries identified in China's 12th FYP. The report didn't disclose which 4 of 7 were targeted:
  • Energy conservation and environmental protection industries
  • New-generation IT industry
  • Biological industry
  • High-end equipment manufacturing industry
  • New energy industry
  • New material industry
  • New-energy automobile industry
Below are some of the R&D priorities for six other nation states who have engaged in industrial and cyber espionage. It's not exhaustive but it illustrates how little deviation there is at the broadest level of international R&D. We can safely say that companies in these industry segments are being targeted for their IP. We can't say that only China is doing the targeting.

France:
  • Energy
  • Biotechnology
  • IT (Information Technology)
  • Space
  • Transportation
Germany:
  • Energy
  • IT and Telecommunications
  • Manufacturing
  • Biotechnology
  • Medicine
  • Climate research
Israel:
  • Telecommunications
  • Medicine
  • Chemistry
  • Information Technology
  • Biotechnology
  • Nanotechnology
Pakistan:
  • Telecommunications
  • Agriculture
  • Medicine
  • Education
Russia:
  • Energy
  • Robotics
  • Information and Telecommunications
  • Nanotechnology
  • Life sciences
  • Environment
South Korea
  • Manufacturing
  • Nanotechnology
  • Semiconductors
  • Transportation
  • Chemicals
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